Sadly, the final week of the yr has arrived. On a brighter observe, the column has produced 9 straight over/below victories, so technically, we’re really in search of a sweep of the second half of the season in totals. Soak it in as we enter the historic first-ever “Week 18.”
General Document*: 36-27-1, +11.17 models
*Every over/below graded to win 2 models; every little thing else for 1 unit
Finest Over/Below Guess
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Will this be the final hurrah for Russell Wilson as a member of the Seahawks?
What a run it’s been, one which already carries reputable hall-of-fame aspirations as the previous Tremendous Bowl MVP continues his profession. But at a still-springy age of 33, every little thing seems to be on the desk in relation to evaluating Russ’ future.
Withering commerce rumors have presided over the Seahawks since earlier than their misplaced season even started. And so they’re positive to solely intensify after the membership’s oncoming last-place end within the NFC West division.
Properly, Wilson mentioned this week his “aim is to win extra Tremendous Bowls” and the “plan is to win them right here.” He’s bought a no-trade clause, too, so finally, this choice must be as much as No. 3 about what transpires — however given the opportunity of a rebuild in Seattle and the considerably murky way forward for longtime head coach Pete Carroll, leaving city is at all times viable.
Both manner, feelings are positive to be working excessive for the Tenth-year QB1. That helps to make sure Wilson churning out one in every of his standard efforts regardless of the ‘Hawks being lengthy gone from the AFC playoff image. And with this recreation having postseason significance for the rival Cardinals, there’s sufficient substances to assist consummate a pleasant outing from Russ.
To start with, he’s having a greater season than most individuals understand. When the Seahawks began to dip within the standings, that got here whereas Wilson was sidelined with a damaged center finger on his throwing hand. He struggled a bit upon his return however has settled again in once more and continues to be hanging a fairly 102.5 passer score and finishing 65.2 % of his passes. Each these marks really register as greater than his profession common for every.
Wilson may even be concluding his 2021 marketing campaign in opposition to a well-known opponent whom he’s usually loved seeing. He’s etched a 29-8 TD/INT ratio in 19 lifetime conferences with the Playing cards and often led them to truthful exercise on the scoreboard.
I’d additionally look out for DK Metcalf leaving his imprints on this recreation. The third-year standout wide-out is 91 yards away from notching his second straight season with no less than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Arizona is the one on this affair nonetheless vying for a division title. Whether or not or not they’ll pull out the win right here and be topped champs of the West (additionally they want the Rams to lose) stays to be seen, however that doesn’t matter to us. We simply need factors.
Like his counterpart, Kyler Murray additionally possesses an encouraging historical past in opposition to the foe he’ll be going through off with at the moment. For his profession, the multi-sport star holds a 97.0 passer score in 4 conferences reverse Seattle, simply his finest mark among the many three division rivals he sees twice yearly. On high of that, the Seahawks are yielding extra passing yards (270.4) every week than all NFC golf equipment
Murray’s well being has been a difficulty within the second half of the season, arguably costing the Cardinals a few video games following their blazing scorching begin. He seeming adopted an identical path this yr to Wilson after each endured accidents that stunted excellent work. At this level, although, Murray is again to full well being.
Apparently so is Wilson after he guided his group to a whopping 51 factors final week. Whereas that got here on the expense of the Lions, it nonetheless serves as a springboard for one more large displaying to wrap issues up.
In the meantime, Arizona is coming off a powerful and necessary win at Dallas final week. All sides being in rhythm units the stage for an explosive season finale.
Decide: OVER 47 (-130)
Finest Unfold Guess
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Unfold: Bears +4/Vikings -4
Right here we now have one other veteran higher echelon beginning quarterback with a little bit of an unsure future regardless of prior success.
Cousins, age 33, is having one other nice yr for the Vikings, even seeking to clinch his third straight marketing campaign with a passer score above 100.0 (and he almost missed out on a fourth his first yr in Minnesota).
But he’s usually one of many more-criticized QB’s within the league. The Vikings’ lack of crew success actually performs a large function in these harsh phrases, and thus, potential commerce rumors have swirled, too.
Any such talks would simply be bogus. Cousins is getting paid some huge cash however he solely has one yr left on that deal — why not simply let him trip it out with the improbable numbers he’s offered them?
Although that is technically a meaningless remaining common season recreation, I foresee Cousins needs to enter the offseason making a press release by the use of a stellar efficiency. Moreover, the Vikings are much better than the respect — or lack thereof — the linesmakers are displaying them based mostly on this curiously low unfold.
Distinction that to the primary assembly just a few Mondays in the past, when the sport was at Soldier Subject, and Minnesota was really favored by greater than they’re at the moment. Usually, whenever you’re at house, that’s no less than a few-point edge to the oddsmakers.
True, Andy Dalton is probably going beginning now as a substitute of Justin Fields, however are we positive that’s an improve? I’m not satisfied it’s.
The Purple Rifle has acquired a handful of begins this yr and regarded principally mediocre, stringing collectively a 76.8 passer score. Chicago’s lackluster forged round him significantly limits their ceiling on this street matchup reverse a high quality protection.
Surprisingly (given all of the vocal Matt Nagy hate on the market), the Bears can really even it up with Minnesota within the NFC Norris for second place at 7-10 in the event that they get the W. That’s simply not occurring, although.
Decide: VIKINGS -4 (-110)
Finest Teaser Guess
WAS-NYG U37.5 —> U50.5
Colts -14.5 —> -1.5
Falcons +3.5 —> +16.5
Raiders +3 —> +16
Let’s get the simple one out of the way in which first, that being the Colts taking up the lowly Jaguars. That is the epitome of the phrase “recreation you must have.” All Indianapolis has to do is defeat the worst crew within the NFL and they’re going to transfer on to the postseason. In the event that they by some means lose, they would wish three totally different outcomes in different bouts to remain alive and advance.
Moreover from the early window, we’ll deploy a complete that appears a little bit worrisome at first look. In spite of everything, the over/below is low sufficient that even including 13 factors to the quantity nonetheless makes it seem like a standard recreation quantity. Nonetheless, how might this NFC East tilt between joke franchises get to past 50 factors? The Soccer Crew has been in free-fall mode the final month, whereas the Giants are being pressured to trot out Jake Fromm as beginning QB once more. Oof
Everlasting rivals New Orleans and Atlanta collide in a recreation that has playoff ramifications for the previous. They have to beat the Falcons on the street and hope San Francisco falls to the Rams with the intention to safe that remaining NFC Wild Card berth. It doesn’t matter what, although, these encounters are virtually at all times shut and we simply want the Falcons to not get blown out decisively
If we make it to the ultimate recreation of the season on Sunday Night time Soccer, the Raiders internet hosting the Chargers in an elimination recreation appears prime for a aggressive assembly as properly. That may point out the Raiders not dropping by 17.
Finest Participant Prop Guess
Jonathan Taylor Over/Below 21.5 Carries
In a must-win recreation to achieve the playoffs, anticipate the Colts to show their standard rush-heavy tendencies that must be prevalent in opposition to a really unhealthy Jags crew.
As long as that’s the case, we’ll get the standard dosage of Taylor, which has equated to a median of 23 rush makes an attempt the final 10 weeks. It was at that time the second-year stud (lastly) grew to become undisputed king of the Indy backfield after the membership was rotating three backs prior and now he’s in place to probably seize Offensive Participant of the Yr honors. My how issues can change.
Jacksonville, in the meantime, sports activities a poor protection in opposition to the run, rating twenty fifth in rush yards allowed (127.1) per recreation. They’ve additionally yielded extra touchdowns on the bottom than all however two NFL golf equipment.
Oh, and the Jaguars are 2-14, homeowners of professional soccer’s worst document coming into the ultimate week. A kind of L’s was by the hands of the Colts, who held Trevor Lawrence to under a 60.0 passer score.
This has the Colts’ fingerprints throughout it, particularly whereas the Jags are with out their finest offensive participant James Robinson, and that factors to the correct of recreation script, sending Taylor off to a busy day.
Decide: OVER 21.5 Carries (EV)