The playoffs are upon us, together with the first-ever Monday Evening Soccer postseason affair. After all, it was all enjoyable for many who have been tailing the column all through the marketing campaign, however getting content material could be simply foolish. We wish extra, like extending this 10-game over/below profitable streak that we closed the 12 months on.
Total File*: 38-29-1, +11.87 models
*Every over/below graded to win 2 models; the whole lot else for 1 unit. Playoffs are half
Finest Over/Underneath Guess
New England Patriots at Buffalo Payments
There are occasions the place the climate can single-handedly dictate a profitable wager. This most actually is a type of occasions.
Temperatures are being forecasted round 5 levels with a harsh wind chill that can make it really feel even lower than that. Sometimes, Buffalo sports activities one of many coldest climates across the league this time of 12 months, however that is only a complete ‘nother stage.
These two AFC East rivals ought to already be accustomed to taking part in one another in unforgiving climate. Their first encounter throughout the season was a memorable one on Monday Evening Soccer final month — particularly for visibly insane wind gusts. The outcome was a innocent 14-10 rating.
Tonight’s Wild Card bout received’t function almost the identical heavy windy exercise, however the circumstances arguably could also be harder. A minimum of in that aforementioned MNF matchup, they bought a comparatively a lot friendlier temperature of round 30 levels.
But the linesmakers are mainly saying the frigid parts set for this night are 4 factors simpler to navigate by way of than that first assembly, which closed with an over/below of 40 proper earlier than kickoff.
To cite Stone Chilly Steve Austin, “Eh eh!” Both manner, we’ll take benefit.
Taking part in in such a glacial setting is clearly actually troublesome. That’s why Josh Allen, who usually electrifies, has struggled in these circumstances regardless of his upbringing on the College of Wyoming.
In line with ESPN’s Payments reporter Alaina Getzenberg, the fourth-year professional has made 5 profession begins in freezing game-time temperatures and amassed a 6-7 TD/INT ratio in these outings whereas finishing simply 50.3 % of his throws.
To place into perspective of how minimal that’s, Getzenberg provides that of the 41 quarterbacks to have registered at the least 5 begins with this kind of chilly throughout the final 15 years, solely Tim Tebow (!) has a decrease completion proportion (42 %)
Not precisely a glowing endorsement for Allen, particularly when having to face an excellent protection. True, he did lead his Payments to 33 factors towards the Patriots in a vital victory three weeks in the past, however that got here in a lot simpler climate to take care of.
Apart from, you already know Invoice Belichick will devise one thing to stop one other outburst. No person clowns Belichick twice in a row.
Mac Jones, in the meantime, can also present consolation for below backers right here. A Florida native that spent his notable collegiate profession at Alabama, Jones merely received’t be ready to place up large numbers. As it’s, within the three video games he performed this season as a rookie with temperatures of 40 levels or decrease, Jones collectively managed a meager 77.6 passer ranking.
Properly, you already know the Patriots’ teaching employees is conscious of this and the very fact Jones didn’t look nice towards the Payments in each 2021 conferences (although to be honest, he solely tried three passes within the Wind Recreation). The Payments had the NFL’s No. 1 move protection this 12 months, yielding the fewest yards per recreation (163) by way of the air in addition to the bottom passer ranking (65.3).
Such a mindset lends the assumption that New England will deploy a run-heavy recreation plan — this technique bought them their lone win reverse Buffalo and noticed them rush the soccer a whopping 46 occasions!
Something near that might wholeheartedly be welcomed. The Patriots do possess one of many higher 1-2 punches within the backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris, however as long as the Payments can decrease the large runs, below bettors could be in fantastic form because the clock continues to tick.
Being so near 45, crucial quantity in soccer totals, I like to recommend shopping for a degree to have that further crutch. Choose: UNDER 45 (-130)
Finest Unfold Guess
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Unfold: 49ers +3/Cowboys -3
Fairly stunning to see this one from Dallas garner such a low unfold; the bottom, the truth is, of Wild Card weekend.
I can’t start to consider the linesmakers’ reasoning. The Cowboys have been a professional juggernaut all through the season (most memorably overlaying the unfold in every of their first eight video games), en route to simply capturing a division title. San Francisco, however, barely squeaked by to even qualify for the playoffs because of an additional time win in Week 18. It needs to be clear who the higher workforce is — and assuredly by greater than a three-point edge at residence.
Thus, we’re going to maintain issues easy and depend on the Cowboys right here to only emerge by at the least a area aim. There’s positively been no indicators of carrying down on that sideline, as evident within the 236 factors they’ve held on the scoreboard the final seven weeks. That’s 33.7 per recreation!
The 49ers, in fact, trot out a far superior protection to a lot of the ones Dallas confronted throughout their present sizzling streak on offense. Nevertheless, their power is attending to the quarterback, illustrated by the 48 sacks they notched to tie for fifth within the league, however that may very well be minimized by a really stout offensive line.
The place the Cowboys can capitalize is within the turnover division. San Francisco is one among three groups within the postseason that completed the 12 months with a detrimental turnover differential (-4), and given how “them Boys” tied for the perfect such mark amongst all 32 golf equipment (+14), this needs to be an space of curiosity for these betting the house aspect.
Regardless of, I simply belief a gifted Dallas offense to maintain it going — and at Jerry’s World, the place they’ve been most deadly. Of their eight video games this season in entrance of Cowboys devoted, Dak and Co. averaged greater than 36 factors, topping 30 in all however two of them. That’s consistency, and they need to journey that previous a 49ers group solely lucky to be on this present place. Choose: COWBOYS -3 (-110)
Finest Teaser Guess (3-game, 10 factors)
Buccaneers -10 —> PK
Chiefs -12.5 —> -2.5
ARI-LAR O49.5 —> O39.5
Teasers have been actual tough this 12 months contemplating all the large upsets being performed by double-digit underdogs.
Within the playoffs now, although, let’s hope there’s typically extra of a way of urgency from should-be victors — beginning with the reigning world champs as they start their title protection within the subsequent stage.
That shouldn’t be asking an excessive amount of. The Bucs have continued to look sturdy even after shedding Chris Godwin (ACL) for the season, and Leonard Fournette (hamstring) and Lavonte David (foot) missed current weeks as nicely. Fortunately, the latter two appear as if they’ll be again. Near full power once more, Tom Brady seems poised to pad his legendary 34-11 postseason file Sunday afternoon.
Within the nightcap, Kansas Metropolis hosts the Steelers in maybe Huge Ben’s remaining recreation. Truly, scratch that; take away “maybe” and safely decree that is it for Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh, an unquestionably worse workforce than some contenders that didn’t advance (such because the Chargers), isn’t going into KC and knocking off the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Keep in mind, the Chiefs have received 9 of 10 coming in and are as scorching as anyone.
If we make it previous Sunday, that simply leaves the primary Monday evening postseason recreation in historical past remaining. Apparently, the Cardinals and Rams did collide on a Monday Evening Soccer broadcast only a month in the past (thus changing into the primary rivalry to share two MNF contests in the identical 12 months), and like their first showdown, that featured loads of motion. In reality, their pair of conferences churned out 110 factors whole between the 2 NFC West residents. All we’re in search of here’s a mere 40 or extra.
Finest Participant Prop Guess
Odell Beckham Jr. Over/Underneath 3.5 Receptions
Arduous to imagine the final time Beckham appeared in a playoff recreation was 5 years in the past throughout his New York Giants tenure.
He’s had his ups and downs on and off the sphere since then, however now it might be secure to journey Beckham as he makes his return to postseason soccer. The previous first-round draft decide is in a spot to succeed.
One, after being jettisoned by the Browns round midseason, Beckham has been on a mission to show he’s nonetheless that very same higher echelon receiver so many individuals fell in love with — or at the least near that.
Beckham took a bit of time to settle in however now’s frequently getting concerned once more, therefore why he’s been on the receiving finish of about 6.5 targets on common the previous seven weeks. I believe he’ll garner extra.
As highlighted in our teaser wager, this Cardinals-Rams tilt ought to function loads of offense, similar to the primary two matchups.
With that being the case, count on Beckham to be significantly concerned. If he sees at the least seven throws his manner like I count on, that ought to simply translate to 4 grabs.
Choose: OVER 3.5 Receptions (-120)